What Damages Would the Activation of the Snapback Mechanism Bring?

Ehsan Chitsaz, Deputy Minister of Communications for International Affairs, while issuing this warning, emphasized that the consequences of the Snapback mechanism for this part of the national economy would be even more severe, since global companies, including Chinese firms, would limit or sever their cooperation.

According to Rokna, with the activation of this mechanism, access to cloud services, applications, development tools, network equipment, and semiconductors would become increasingly difficult or even impossible. While Iran is already under sanctions, the Snapback mechanism would have a “compounded effect,” as it is a decision of the United Nations Security Council and would impose considerable restrictions even on Iran’s allies such as China.

On the other hand, in the field of cybersecurity, the possibility of receiving updates and security features would be cut off due to sanctions, exposing infrastructures to risks. As witnessed during the hacking incident of one of the banks, a significant part of the damage stemmed from network equipment that had entered the country without security controls and guarantees.

Iran’s information and communications technology industry is already struggling with extensive sanctions and domestic challenges, and the possible activation of the Snapback mechanism has cast its future into even deeper uncertainty. In this situation, experts warn that the imposition of multilateral sanctions could further restrict the country’s access to equipment, software, and global cloud services, while at the same time fueling a new wave of migration among specialists — a process already intensified by domestic challenges such as internet filtering and instability.

The impact of the Snapback mechanism,

At a time when many countries in the region are rapidly moving toward the development of their digital economies and attracting foreign investment, could exacerbate the restrictions Iran’s ICT industry already faces. The return of multilateral sanctions could further disrupt the supply chain of hardware and software, limit the access of Iranian companies to global markets, and even jeopardize regional technological cooperation. Under such conditions, the future of critical infrastructure such as fiber optics, artificial intelligence, and cloud services would be more uncertain than ever.

Ehsan Chitsaz, Deputy for ICT Development Policy and Planning and the Digital Economy at the Ministry of Communications, regarding the potential activation of the Snapback mechanism and its impact on the ICT industry, stated:

“If the Snapback mechanism under Resolution 2231 is activated before Termination Day, its consequences for Iran’s ICT industry will be more severe than for many other sectors. The reason is clear: the ICT sector is heavily dependent on global hardware, software, and cloud service supply chains, and any increase in compliance risk will cause global companies, even top-tier Chinese firms, to restrict or cut their interactions with Iran. Already, U.S. sanctions and European decisions have created considerable restrictions, but the Snapback mechanism has a ‘compounded effect’ because it is based on the Security Council’s decision, binding all UN members, including China.”

He believes this would mean narrower access to cloud services, app stores, development tools, network equipment, and semiconductors. Chitsaz explained:

“For example, in cybersecurity, when access to updates and security patches slows or stops due to sanctions, the resilience of national infrastructure is endangered. Or in hardware, if direct purchase from the main supplier is impossible and we are forced to buy through informal intermediaries, the risk of importing compromised equipment increases. As in the case of the Bank Sepah hack, a significant part of the damage resulted from network equipment that entered the country without control and security guarantees.”

The Deputy Minister stressed that if the Snapback mechanism is activated, Iran will face the risk of greater isolation, and the ICT industry must prepare for a scenario of comprehensive restrictions. If it is not activated, the situation will not fundamentally change because of ongoing unilateral U.S. sanctions and European Union policies, but the room for maneuver would be slightly wider.

Domestic Barriers to Growth of the Ecosystem

The impacts of sanctions on the ICT sector are not limited to one dimension. Evidence shows that these pressures have already caused a large-scale migration of ICT specialists, with its long-term consequences yet to fully emerge.

Chitsaz stated:

“There are no comprehensive public statistics on the migration of ICT specialists, but all unofficial observations point to a significant outflow of skilled human capital. Domestic research centers have estimated that several thousand ICT professionals migrate annually. Their main destinations are Turkey, the UAE, Germany, and Canada. Another clear sign is the growing presence of Iranian specialists on international freelancing platforms; thousands of Iranian developers, due to domestic restrictions and foreign sanctions, pursue their international projects outside the country.”

He believes the roots of this migration are a combination of domestic constraints such as internet filtering, instability, and unpredictable policies, along with external pressures such as sanctions and loss of access to global services and markets. This negative synergy has diverted much of the human capital that should drive the domestic digital economy into serving foreign ecosystems instead.

From the perspective of the Ministry of Communications, this is not merely a social issue but a transformative economic challenge. Chitsaz noted that lifting sanctions in the ICT sector would have a dramatic impact:

“The first effect would be Iran’s return to the official global supply chain. This means direct imports of data center equipment, semiconductors, and communications hardware without intermediaries or contamination risks. The second is the reopening of interaction channels with technology giants, from cloud services and enterprise software (SaaS) to app stores and payment systems. With sanctions lifted, Iranian startups could offer their products on the App Store and Google Play, use Stripe or PayPal or Iranian payment systems for transactions, and cooperate with global advertising and marketing networks.”

At the policy level, lifting sanctions would allow foreign investment and the presence of international venture capitalists, which is almost nonexistent today. He explained:

“The experience of similar countries has shown that foreign investors bring not only financial resources but also managerial knowledge, global standards, and international connections. Moreover, in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the Internet of Things, lifting sanctions would facilitate access to advanced GPUs, cloud APIs, and training services for models, potentially accelerating Iran’s development in these areas severalfold.”

Perhaps the most significant transformation after lifting sanctions would be the possibility of establishing international joint ventures. Chitsaz emphasized that such partnerships — joint investments, local production contracts, and knowledge and technology transfer — could fundamentally change Iran’s position in the global ICT chain:

“When global companies find local partners instead of merely selling products in Iran, joint production takes shape, technology is transferred, and Iran evolves from being merely a consumer market to becoming a producer in the global ICT value chain. This not only enables access to technology but also creates jobs, facilitates service exports, and could even turn Iran into a regional technology hub.”

Conclusion

In sum, Iran’s ICT industry today stands at a critical juncture. On the one hand, the threat of activating the Snapback mechanism could push the sector into deeper isolation, stricter technological restrictions, diminished access to global services, and intensified human capital flight. On the other hand, even without the mechanism, domestic challenges such as widespread filtering, unstable internet, and unpredictable policies already constrain startups and tech firms.

Conversely, the lifting of sanctions and the reopening of global channels could grant Iran access to new technologies, foreign investment, and international partnerships. The future of Iran’s technology industry will largely depend on whether the country can overcome both external sanctions and internal barriers such as filtering in the near future.