How China Can Stop a U.S. Warship in Its Tracks

A leaked confidential report from U.S. Department of Defense war simulations reveals that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China has the potential to sink or disable the state-of-the-art Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

The leaked report, titled “Overmatch Brief,” discloses alarming details. According to multiple simulations, Chinese forces could neutralize the new U.S. carriers before their air power can significantly influence the course of battle.

China’s Successful Strategy Relies on a Layered, Combined Attack:

• Cyber and Anti-Satellite Operations: In the initial phase of battle, China would deploy effective cyberattacks and anti-space operations to disrupt and disable the U.S.’s critical surveillance, navigation, and combat management systems, which are essential for targeting the fleet.

• Hypersonic Missile Barrage: After blinding the fleet’s defenses, waves of long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles (such as the DF-21D and DF-26), cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons would be launched.

The report indicates that the volume and diversity of these missiles easily exceed the defensive capacity of the carrier strike group’s layered systems, causing the USS Gerald R. Ford to fail multiple times in the early stages of simulations.

Advances in Electronic Warfare and Destroyers

The report highlights the rapid growth of China’s anti-ship capabilities. Concerns over the vulnerability of U.S. carriers have intensified, while additional evidence underscores China’s advantages:

• Chinese Destroyer Superiority: Chinese simulations have shown that a single advanced Type 055 destroyer can defeat eight U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyers—the defensive shield of aircraft carriers—with the support of unmanned missile ships in a naval battle.

• Advanced Electronic Warfare: In 2024, multiple sources reported a 12-hour intense electronic warfare engagement in the South China Sea between the two sides. During the battle, U.S. ships experienced complete GPS signal loss and communication outages. Evaluations indicated that U.S. Navy electronic warfare equipment lags a generation behind China, enhancing Chinese superiority in a potential conflict.

These findings raise serious questions regarding the survivability of aircraft carriers as the cornerstone of U.S. naval power against China’s next-generation anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) weapons.