Return of Millions of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran Pushes Afghanistan to the Edge, UN Warns

According to Rokna, citing The NBC News, since October 2023, approximately 5.4 million people have returned to Afghanistan, primarily from Pakistan and Iran, according to Arafat Jamal, UNHCR’s representative in Afghanistan. Speaking via video link from Kabul at a UN briefing in Geneva, Jamal stated, “The scale and speed of these returns is enormous and has pushed Afghanistan nearly to the brink.”

The surge follows a major crackdown by Pakistan in October 2023 to expel undocumented migrants, urging some to leave voluntarily to avoid arrest while forcibly deporting others. Iran initiated similar measures around the same time.

Millions, including individuals born in Pakistan decades ago who had established lives and businesses there, have since crossed the border back into Afghanistan. Jamal noted that in 2023 alone, 2.9 million people returned, marking the largest repatriation to any single country in recent history.

The Taliban-led government has criticized the mass expulsions. Afghanistan, already grappling with a dire humanitarian situation and poor human rights conditions—particularly for women and girls—has been further strained by the influx, which represents roughly 12% of the country’s population, Jamal said.

In just the first month and a half of this year, around 150,000 people have returned. Afghan authorities provide returning families with care packages containing food assistance, cash, a SIM card, and transport to areas where they may have relatives. However, the sheer volume of returnees has placed additional stress on resources in a country still struggling with economic fragility, the aftermath of severe droughts, and the impact of two major earthquakes.

In November, the UN Development Program reported that nine out of ten families in regions with high return rates were relying on “negative coping mechanisms,” such as skipping meals, accumulating debt, or selling personal belongings to survive.

Jamal emphasized concern over the sustainability of these returns. While 5% of returnees indicated they might leave Afghanistan again, over 10% reported knowing someone who had already done so. He added, “These decisions to undertake dangerous journeys are not due to a lack of desire to stay in the country; rather, they reflect the harsh reality that many are unable to rebuild stable and dignified lives.”