Europe’s Readiness for War with Russia; Fact or Rumor?

Fabio Lugano, an Italian author, described the current situation in Europe, noting the return of compulsory military service, the rebuilding of shelters, and plans to deploy 800,000 troops toward Eastern Europe, as a “silent mobilization” in preparation for a potential war with Russia.

According to Rokna, citing Al Jazeera, Lugano wrote in a report published by the Italian website Scenario Economici that public attention in Europe remains limited regarding these developments. However, decision-making circles in European capitals and within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) no longer discuss war merely as a hypothetical scenario; they are preparing with concrete plans and substantial budgets.

He added that Europe has not yet witnessed public statements about war similar to the loud radio announcements of the 1940s, yet signs of mobilization are undeniable and clearly indicate that the past is knocking on the doors of a continent that believed it was living in the “end of history.”

Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO, spoke in Germany with remarkable firmness, stating: “Allies are the next target. We must prepare for a war similar to the one our ancestors witnessed.”

Signs of Danger

Lugano noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated last week a principle he consistently emphasizes: Moscow is not seeking confrontation with Europe, but “if Europe wishes to fight us and effectively initiates it, we are ready.”

According to the author, this statement may seem superficial at first glance, appearing as ordinary Kremlin propaganda, but when compared to the statements of Western leaders, the situation becomes hazardous.

On December 11, Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO, spoke with remarkable determination in Germany: “Allies are the next target. We must prepare for a war similar to the one our ancestors witnessed.”

Thus, according to Lugano, the issue is no longer related to peacekeeping operations or asymmetric conflicts, but rather a large-scale war.

Britain and War

The author highlighted that London, with its customary pragmatism, is moving beyond mere rhetoric. Alistair Carnes, the UK Minister of Armed Forces, stated that “the shadow of war has once again fallen over Europe.”

He added that the key point raised by Carnes is that “armies manage crises, but societies and economies win wars,” highlighting the underlying risk.

The UK government is working on a comprehensive update to the “Government Defense Guide,” a practical Cold War-era manual that specifies actionable instructions across all sectors of civil society, from hospitals and theaters to schools and police stations.

Military Service

Lugano emphasized that Paris and Berlin have moved beyond the hesitation that characterized their policies in recent years, taking practical steps to prepare for war.

According to the author, France made a historic decision to reinstate military service after 29 years of suspension, with implementation expected gradually from next summer for the 18- and 19-year-old age group.

President Macron stated, “The only way to prevent danger is to prepare for it,” while the government decided to pay each new recruit approximately 800 euros per month.

The author continues that Germany, under the current government’s leadership, has accelerated the resolution of pending issues since Chancellor Olaf Scholz took office and has begun to act along multiple avenues.

Confidential Plan

The German parliament voted to send mandatory questionnaires to all 18-year-olds starting January 2026 to assess readiness for service. If the numbers do not match the required military capacity, compulsory service—which has been suspended since 2011—could be reinstated.

According to the author, Berlin has drafted a confidential 1,200-page document called the “Germany Operations Plan,” detailing the mobilization of 800,000 NATO troops in Germany in preparation for their deployment to Eastern Europe.

This plan is not limited to troop deployment; it also includes infrastructure preparation, civilian resilience capabilities, and the rapid reactivation of war machinery. However, Lugano notes that the feasibility remains uncertain.

Europe’s mobilization is not confined to military spending and army readiness; it also includes the construction of fortifications and preparation of shelters.

Military Expenditures

The author explained that Europe is witnessing a fundamental transformation in national budgets, as spending 2% of GDP on defense is no longer a ceiling but a minimum. He added that the map of military expenditures in Europe is notable.

Germany has established a special military fund worth 100 billion euros, which is being implemented and distributed at an accelerating pace.

Poland plans to increase its military spending to 4.7% of GDP and is currently training all adult males to raise the army size to 500,000.

The Baltic countries are seeking to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, while Sweden and France aim for 3.5%.

The European Union has also launched the “Rearmament of Europe / Readiness for 2030” plan, which includes a financial leverage of up to 800 billion euros, supported by lending instruments worth 150 billion.

The author emphasizes that the continent’s mobilization is not limited to military spending and army readiness but also encompasses fortification construction and shelter preparation.