Will Lebanon Once Again Become a Battlefield?

Egyptian intelligence chief, Brigadier General Hassan Rashad, arrived in Beirut on the morning of Tuesday, October 28, 2025, in an unannounced visit under tight security measures. He met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the Baabda Palace. The visit coincides with the presence of U.S. special envoy Morgan Ortagus in Beirut and comes only days after Rashad’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in occupied Jerusalem, giving this trip significant political and security weight amid the current regional volatility.

According to the Lebanese presidency’s statement on the social platform X, discussions between Aoun and Rashad covered security and military issues, bilateral coordination, and ways to build upon the positive atmosphere created by the Gaza agreement and the Sharm el-Sheikh summit to extend their effects to the Lebanese file. The talks also addressed the general regional situation, particularly in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Rashad reaffirmed Egypt’s readiness to help “stabilize southern Lebanon and end ongoing insecurity,” reiterating Cairo’s full support for Lebanon.

A source close to Egyptian officials told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Beirut holds strategic importance for Cairo, and the visit is part of Egypt’s proactive regional diplomacy aimed at fostering peace and stability in coordination with the United States and other Arab and international partners. “Lebanon is a key front in the ceasefire equation, especially after the recent developments in Syria and the northern borders,” the source said. “Egypt seeks to play an active role to prevent Lebanon from sliding into full-scale conflict.”

Rashad also met with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and is expected to hold talks with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The meetings reportedly focus on border security, the Lebanese army’s role in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and possible Arab coordination to support Lebanon’s institutions amid economic and security pressures. Some Lebanese sources indicated Rashad might also hold an undisclosed meeting with Hezbollah leadership, underscoring the political depth of his visit.

Analysts in Cairo believe the trip follows Rashad’s recent meetings in Jerusalem and that he may carry direct and indirect messages from Israel to Lebanese officials to prevent an escalation along the border. However, another perspective in Beirut suggests that the visit’s main goal is to explore Egypt’s potential mediation between Lebanon and Israel—an initiative that could ease tensions and revive post-2006 ceasefire mechanisms.

Egyptian sources told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Cairo aims to expand its diplomatic footprint in the Levant, leveraging its open channels with Washington, Tel Aviv, and Arab capitals. They stressed that Egypt views Lebanon’s stability as part of broader regional security, not merely bilateral relations, and has maintained close security coordination with Beirut. Rashad’s visit, they said, reflects Cairo’s new approach to preventing a repeat of the regional collapses witnessed in the past decade.

Lebanese media outlets report that Rashad’s trip followed intensive consultations between Cairo and several Western and Arab capitals. The goal is to form a unified Arab diplomatic front to support Lebanon’s stability and prevent the spillover of tensions from Gaza and Syria into northern Israel. These efforts come as warnings of escalating military clashes and intensified Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon increase. Egypt’s initiative is seen as one of the few serious attempts to avert a broader regional explosion.

Egyptian political analyst Amr Nassif, an expert on Lebanese affairs, told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Cairo approaches the Lebanese issue with a “realistic outlook,” seeking a compromise to prevent all-out war and preserve Lebanon’s stability. “Cairo understands that instability in Palestine, and the crises in Sudan, Libya, and Syria, all pose threats to Egypt’s national security,” he said. “It would be unwise for the region to lose its few remaining leverage tools, particularly the resistance movements.”

According to informed sources, Rashad’s main goal is to minimize the risk of regional escalation, as cross-border fire in southern Lebanon has intensified in recent weeks. Such a conflict, they warn, could undermine the “day after” arrangements in Gaza and threaten shipping routes in the eastern Mediterranean and the Suez Canal. Cairo’s second objective is to preserve the gains achieved through the Gaza track; since Rashad’s appointment as Egypt’s intelligence chief in October 2024, replacing Abbas Kamel, Cairo has played a key role in ensuring and supervising security agreements with Israel and Palestinian factions.

Sources say Rashad’s Beirut agenda included “mutual deterrence messages” and a proposal known as the “1701 Approach.” Under this plan, Cairo is reportedly offering a practical framework to return to the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701—cessation of hostilities, creation of weapon-free zones south of the Litani River, and strengthening UNIFIL’s role. The initiative, conveyed through indirect channels with Tel Aviv, aims to prevent large-scale conflict without imposing political pressure on Beirut. Analysts argue that Rashad’s recent meeting with Netanyahu places Egypt in a credible mediating position capable of “testing intentions” and conveying “red-line messages” between both sides.

Although the Lebanese government has not officially disclosed details of the talks, observers believe Cairo is carving out a new dual role: actively participating in the Sharm el-Sheikh process and the Gaza follow-up, while engaging in the Lebanese file to stabilize the region and prevent interconnected fronts. If the visit opens a new channel of dialogue between Beirut and Tel Aviv through Egyptian mediation, it could mark a first step toward an informal ceasefire that serves the interests of all parties and eases pressure on southern Lebanon.

Egypt’s ambassador to Lebanon, Alaa Moussa, stated that the visit took place “within the framework of political and security coordination” between the two countries and reaffirmed Cairo’s commitment to de-escalation. He warned that Israel’s intensifying attacks in Lebanon demand heightened vigilance and coordination.

Just days before arriving in Beirut, Rashad met with Netanyahu on October 21 as part of broader regional consultations regarding the ceasefire and the post-conflict political track. From this perspective, Rashad’s visit to Beirut appears to be a continuation of Egypt’s synchronized diplomatic initiative addressing both the Gaza and Lebanon-Israel fronts.