Putin’s Victory and Trump’s Challenges: What Is the Reality?

Bloomberg’s website described the Washington-Moscow plan for a temporary ceasefire aimed at ending the war and initiating technical negotiations to achieve a definitive peace in Ukraine as a significant victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Bloomberg, Washington and Moscow have targeted reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

American and Russian officials are cooperating on a territorial agreement during a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Presidents of the United States and Russia.

The report added that the U.S. is trying to gain the support of Ukraine and its allies for this agreement, which is still far from being finalized.

Putin demands that Ukraine relinquish the eastern Donbas region and Crimea, annexed to Russia in 2014. This requires Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, to withdraw his forces from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still under Kyiv’s control.

Based on the report, achieving this goal would be a victory for the Russian army, which since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has not been able to accomplish it.

Such an outcome would be a major victory for Putin, who, by sidelining Ukraine and its European allies, has long sought direct negotiations with the United States on the principles for ending the war.

In this scenario, Zelensky would face an agreement requiring him to accept the loss of his territory, while Europe would worry about entrusting the ceasefire supervision to Putin, whose forces are in the process of regrouping.

The American website quoted informed sources as saying that according to the principles of the negotiated agreement, Russia would halt attacks on the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine.

They also said that the terms and plans of this agreement may be subject to change.

It is still unclear whether Moscow will relinquish the territories it currently controls, including the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe.

The American media outlet noted that the White House has declined to comment on this agreement, and the Kremlin has not responded to Bloomberg’s inquiry on the matter. Ukraine has also refrained from commenting on the proposed principles.

Putin has repeatedly emphasized that his war aims have not changed, including demands that Kyiv accept neutrality and abandon its ambitions to join NATO. The Russian president also demands Kyiv’s acceptance of the loss of Crimea and four eastern and southern Ukrainian regions to Russia.

Bloomberg, citing the mentioned officials, wrote that it is still unclear whether Putin will agree to participate in a trilateral meeting with Trump and Zelensky this week.

However, on Thursday, the Russian president told reporters he would have no objection to meeting Zelensky under suitable conditions, though such conditions do not yet exist.

The report added that the United States had previously proposed, as part of any agreement to stop the war, recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and effectively transferring control of parts of other Ukrainian regions to Russia. Under these previous proposals, control of parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson would be returned to Ukraine.

A Diplomatic Victory for the Kremlin

The New York Times also reported on this matter, noting that the U.S. president has agreed to meet with Putin next Friday in Alaska.

The media outlet added that Trump withheld any details regarding the August 15 meeting but given Ukraine’s absence from this meeting, the likelihood of immediate progress seems slim. Nonetheless, the meeting marks a significant shift in U.S. policy.

The American newspaper wrote that since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, the West has largely treated Putin as a reviled figure. The fact that the U.S. president intends to meet with him is considered a diplomatic victory for the Kremlin.

The New York Times claimed that Moscow’s request for this summit came as Trump’s deadline for imposing primary and secondary sanctions was approaching. On Wednesday, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special representative to the Kremlin, met with Putin, though neither side disclosed details of the talks.

Regarding Putin’s demands for the meeting with Trump, the newspaper suggested this summit might be another tactic by Putin to halt the war’s momentum, buy time, and improve relations with Washington.

The meeting also reflects Putin’s broader global views that great powers should decide their spheres of influence, a perspective akin to Stalin’s 1945 meeting with U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill to divide Europe after World War II.

What Is at Stake for Trump?

Trump promised to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office, but that deadline has long passed and he continues to claim he is close to a very good deal. Trump has also openly sought the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump’s stance on the Ukraine war has been inconsistent. Earlier this year, he showed greater alignment with the Kremlin and limited aid to Ukraine.

However, growing disappointed with Putin, he recently ordered an increase in arms sales to Ukraine and criticized Russia for bombing Ukrainian cities.

The Ineffectiveness of Trump’s Pressure on Russia

Although Trump threatened to impose severe primary and secondary sanctions on Russia to end the war, he admitted that sanctions might be ineffective.

In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Trump said that if energy prices drop by another $10 per barrel, Putin will stop the war, but he refrained from sanctioning China, Russia’s largest oil importer. Indian officials have stated they will continue buying Russian oil.

The New York Times wrote about the likelihood of progress at the U.S.-Russia summit, noting that one of the key actors in the war, Ukraine, will not be present. Trump said he would meet Zelensky immediately after this summit. However, Zelensky’s absence will limit the summit’s potential outcomes. Europe, which has a large stake in the war’s outcome, is also not participating.

The opposition of Russia and Ukraine to any agreement complicates reaching a negotiated solution, and there are currently no clear signs of optimism.