Russian Violation of Estonian Airspace: A New Alarm in Russia-NATO Relations

On Thursday, NATO deployed Italian F-35 fighter jets to intercept three Russian MiG-31 aircraft that entered Estonian airspace for approximately 12 minutes over the Gulf of Finland. The incident was described by Estonian officials and European leaders as “reckless” and a “dangerous provocation,” heightening security concerns in the Baltic region.

The Estonian Ministry of Defence reported that the Russian aircraft entered the airspace without filing flight plans, with transponders turned off, and did not communicate with air traffic control. Military officials noted that this was the fifth Russian airspace violation of Estonia this year, but the most “brazen” to date.

Kaja Kallas, EU’s top diplomat and former Estonian prime minister, called the move a “highly dangerous provocation” and highlighted Moscow’s increasing aggression. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed solidarity with Estonia, stating that “Europe will respond firmly to any provocation” and urged swift approval of the EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia.

Moscow denied the allegations, claiming that the MiG-31s were conducting routine flights from Karelia in eastern Finland to Kaliningrad and only flew over neutral Baltic waters. The Russian Ministry of Defence emphasized that the aircraft maintained a distance of over three kilometers from Vaindloo Island and that “no violation occurred.”

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna warned that Russia is testing boundaries and measuring reactions, stressing that such provocative actions should be met with increased political and economic pressure. Tallinn summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires for explanations.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced that Estonia formally requested NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which mandates members to consult whenever a member’s security, political independence, or territorial integrity is threatened. Michal emphasized that “such violations are completely unacceptable, and NATO must respond decisively.”

The European Union will discuss a “collective response” to repeated Russian airspace violations at a meeting in Copenhagen on 1 October. Analysts noted that similar incidents, including over 20 Russian drones entering Polish airspace last week, suggest Moscow may be testing NATO’s readiness and response capabilities.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday evening that he was not pleased with the incident and warned that it “could create big trouble.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned Russia’s actions and called for a “systematic and strong response” from allied nations.