Human-Made Global Warming Responsible for Two-Thirds of Heat-Related Deaths in Europe This Summer

According to Rokna, citing The Guardian, An early analysis of mortality data from 854 major cities estimated that out of 24,400 deaths from June to August, approximately 16,500 were caused by the extreme heat linked to greenhouse gas emissions.

The rapid study, using established scientific methods but not yet peer-reviewed, found that climate change raised average city temperatures by 2.2°C, significantly increasing the risk of death during dangerously hot weather.

Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the report, said: “The causal link from burning fossil fuels to rising temperatures and increased mortality is clear. Had we not continued fossil fuel use over the past decades, most of the estimated 24,400 deaths this summer in Europe could have been avoided.”

The team modeled excess mortality by analyzing local temperature-death relationships and comparing the findings—covering cities home to nearly one-third of Europe’s population—with a hypothetical scenario without climate change.

Their analysis revealed that the additional heat accounted for roughly 68% of the deaths. Elderly populations were particularly affected, with 85% of the deceased over 65 years old, and 41% over 85.

Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and co-author, emphasized that most heat-related fatalities occur in homes and hospitals, where individuals with pre-existing health conditions are pushed beyond safe limits. “Heat is rarely recorded on death certificates,” he noted.

Some victims who died outdoors were identified by local media. Manuel Ariza Serrano, a 77-year-old former councilor in La Rambla, Spain, collapsed during a walk in August amid 45°C temperatures, according to the local council.

In northern Italy, Brahim Ait El Hajjam, a 47-year-old father of four and flooring company owner, died while pouring concrete for a school building near Bologna, where temperatures reached 38°C that day—two days before regional authorities restricted outdoor work during the hottest hours. His 19-year-old son recalled his father’s last call: “He told my mother he’d be home to prepare lunch by noon.”

Konstantinoudis warned that public health risks from extreme heat remain underestimated, despite their severity. “No one would expect people to work in torrential rain or hurricane conditions, yet extreme heat is still treated too lightly,” he said.

While Europe’s cities are better equipped than during the 2003 heatwave—which claimed 70,000 lives—emergency services are struggling to keep pace with rising temperatures and an aging population.

Experts are calling for local heat action plans, increased green spaces in urban areas, and access to air conditioning for vulnerable populations, such as residents of retirement homes.

Madeleine Thomson, an adaptation specialist at the Wellcome Trust, commented: “No city in Europe is immune to the lethal effects of extreme heat. If immediate action is not taken, the death toll will continue to rise. We must phase out fossil fuels and implement policies to protect the most at-risk populations from increasingly deadly heatwaves.”