Cubans prepare for deeper economic hardship amid risk of losing Venezuelan oil supplies

Cuba’s economy, already mired in a severe crisis, is expected to deteriorate even further.

According to Rokna, citing NBC News, after the overnight operation that removed Maduro from power, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Cuba’s government could also collapse — a view echoed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

Since Hugo Chávez rose to power in Venezuela in 1999, Cuba has relied heavily on subsidized Venezuelan oil, provided in exchange for Cuban doctors, military advisers, security personnel and other specialists. Without this oil, Cuba’s already fragile economy is likely to plunge even deeper into crisis.

“If the oil supply were to stop completely, the Cuban economy would essentially come to a standstill,” said Pavel Vidal, a former economist at Cuba’s central bank who now teaches at Javeriana University in Colombia. “It would be a devastating shock to an economy that has been in recession for six years and lacks the productive capacity, competitiveness and foreign currency needed to replace those supplies.”

Bracing for tougher times

In Cuba, where people are accustomed to chronic shortages and economic strain, many are preparing for even harsher conditions following recent U.S. actions in Venezuela. The country previously endured the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, when its economy contracted by roughly 30%.

“The situation here is going to get extremely hard,” said Rey Rodriguez, a butcher. “Just imagine what’s coming: less oil, more power outages … young people will grow even more pessimistic.”

According to Jorge Piñón, an energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute, satellite tracking services show no oil tankers currently traveling from Venezuela to Cuba — though he cautioned that so-called “ghost ships” with disabled transponders could still be operating.

Venezuela typically sends three to four tankers per month to Cuba, delivering between 30,000 and 35,000 barrels of oil per day.

“That’s why Venezuelan oil is so critical,” Piñón said. “Those 30,000 to 35,000 barrels account for about half of Cuba’s oil shortfall.” The remaining supplies come primarily from Mexico and Russia.

Weeks before the developments in Venezuela, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel painted a grim picture of the economy in a speech to the National Assembly, noting that gross domestic product had fallen by more than 4%, inflation had surged and economic activity was “partially paralyzed.”

Content creator Pedro Luis García said uncertainty looms over the country’s future. “We don’t know exactly how bad things will get, but the situation will likely worsen because of oil shortages,” he said. “Still, I don’t believe there will be a change of government. These problems have existed since 1962, and the government is prepared for scenarios like this.”

For decades under U.S. sanctions, Cubans have endured acute shortages of food, medicine and fuel. In recent years, the import-dependent nation has seen foreign currency revenues decline by around 30%.

Tourism, the government’s second-largest source of income, has suffered in recent years and could decline further if conditions deteriorate.

Cuba is also facing a surge in mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue and chikungunya, affecting nearly one-third of the population. The crisis has been worsened by the government’s inability to remove growing piles of garbage from streets or conduct widespread fumigation campaigns.

Over the past year, Cubans have endured extended power outages due to aging oil-fired power plants. The national power grid collapsed several times last year as a result of outdated infrastructure and fuel shortages. Reduced oil deliveries from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico have forced authorities to ration electricity.

Havana, once largely spared from blackouts, now experiences power cuts lasting 10 hours or more each day. In other regions, outages can last up to 20 hours.

Oil shipments from Venezuela could halt entirely if Trump succeeds in applying further pressure.

Mexico, Cuba’s second-largest oil supplier, is also facing mounting pressure from Trump, who recently suggested the U.S. might take action against the country, claiming drugs were “pouring” across the border and warning that “something has to be done.”

A defiant response from Havana

On the day Maduro was captured, Díaz-Canel delivered a defiant speech condemning U.S. actions. He said Washington’s moves were not about Maduro, his administration or drug trafficking, but rather that the “true object of imperial desire was Venezuelan oil, land and natural resources.”

He added that “for Venezuela — and of course for Cuba — we are willing to shed our own blood, even give our lives, at a very high cost.”

Cuba’s government reported that 32 military and security personnel were killed on Saturday.

State-run media outlets, including national television and the official newspaper Granma, published photos of the fallen officers along with their names, ages and ranks.

In an interview with “Meet the Press,” Rubio declined to specify what additional measures the United States might take against Cuba.

“I’m not going to discuss future steps or policies at this moment,” he said. “But it’s no secret that we are not supporters of the Cuban regime.”

Although Cuba is already subject to extensive U.S. sanctions, Washington still has options. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. prohibited all flights to Cuba except those bound for Havana.

Former senior Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray told NBC News that the long-term consequences remain unclear. “We need to see what impact this will have,” he said. “The world hasn’t ended, despite how Marco Rubio and Donald Trump would like to portray it.”

He added that the U.S. may be using intimidation to try to weaken ties between Venezuela and Cuba, though he believes those relations remain intact, as Cuba and most Cubans continue to support Venezuela in condemning U.S. actions.

Alzugaray said Havana should be engaged in intensive consultations with key allies such as China and Russia.

Cuba’s Soviet-style command economy has long resisted loosening restrictions on the private sector or opening more fully to foreign investment, despite encouragement from allies like Vietnam and China.

Vidal noted that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it took four years for Cuba’s economy to reach its lowest point and begin recovering, aided by tourism, remittances and foreign investment — factors that are largely absent today.

“Now there is widespread skepticism among Cuba’s own international partners about the sustainability of its economic model and financial situation,” Vidal said. “In the 1990s, Cuba had stronger and more respected political leadership at home and abroad. That is no longer the case.”