Ukraine’s Security Hangs in the Balance as U.S. Focus Shifts and NATO Unity Is Tested

According to Rokna, based on reports, Leaders and senior envoys from more than 25 countries gathered in the French capital on Tuesday with the aim of finalizing security arrangements that Europe hopes will be backed by American military power as part of any future peace settlement with Russia. However, recent actions and statements from Washington have cast doubt on the durability of that support.

The meeting, convened by French President Emmanuel Macron, was intended to reinforce transatlantic unity and demonstrate continued commitment to Europe’s security architecture. Instead, it has been overshadowed by Washington’s recent military operation in Venezuela and President Trump’s renewed rhetoric about potentially seizing Greenland — a territory governed by Denmark, a NATO member and long-standing U.S. ally.

According to a White House official, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to participate in the Paris talks alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Macron has described the gathering of the so-called “coalition of the willing” as an opportunity for allies to make “concrete commitments” to Ukraine’s long-term security.

Zelenskyy, in a statement over the weekend, called the meeting “a new opportunity to end this war,” as diplomatic efforts to halt the conflict have intensified in recent months.

Despite renewed momentum, the path to peace remains fraught. European and Ukrainian officials remain deeply concerned that Russia’s hardline demands could allow President Vladimir Putin to use any agreement as a temporary pause before launching renewed aggression.

Those fears have been amplified by Washington’s actions elsewhere. The U.S. raid in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro — an operation the United Nations said undermined international law — have raised questions about America’s strategic focus. Trump’s escalating threats toward Greenland have further unsettled European allies.

At the heart of the Paris discussions is the question of “security guarantees” for Ukraine. These could include the deployment of a multinational force aimed at deterring future Russian attacks. Kyiv and its European partners have repeatedly stressed that such guarantees would only be credible if supported by U.S. military power.

However, Trump has suggested that American force could instead be directed against a NATO ally. In an interview with NBC News on Monday, he said he was “very serious” about his ambition to take control of Greenland, citing national security concerns.

The remarks have triggered alarm across Europe, with analysts warning that such a move would fundamentally undermine the NATO alliance. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College, said an attack on a NATO member would effectively signal the end of the alliance, as European states would no longer see the United States as a reliable security guarantor.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen echoed those concerns, warning that any U.S. military action against a NATO country would halt the alliance’s operations entirely.

European leaders, while cautious not to openly confront Trump, have made their opposition clear. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said no NATO member should threaten or attack another, warning that internal conflict would strip the alliance of its purpose.

Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement aimed at ending the war in Ukraine has intensified since November, marked by frequent shuttle diplomacy involving U.S., European, Ukrainian and Russian officials. Zelenskyy has said a peace agreement is “90%” complete, though he acknowledged that the remaining issues are the most difficult to resolve.

It remains uncertain whether Russia would accept any form of security guarantee for Ukraine, as Putin continues to press for terms widely seen as amounting to Kyiv’s effective surrender.

As negotiations continue, the convergence of the Ukraine war, U.S. actions in Venezuela and mounting tensions over Greenland has exposed deep unease within the Western alliance — raising questions about its cohesion at a critical moment for European security.