Fifty-Six Years of Rain; Fifty-Six Years of Mismanagement – Iran’s Water Crisis Is Not the Sky’s Fault + 56-Year Rainfall Statistics

According to Rokna’s social affairs correspondent, a review of 56 years of rainfall data in Iran provides a clear picture. Since the 1960s, Iran has experienced natural cycles of drought and rainfall, but today’s crisis is not a direct result of climate change; it is the product of decades of mismanagement.

The statistics indicate that the country had multiple opportunities to replenish, store, and manage its water resources despite years of abundant rainfall, yet these opportunities were squandered, and the crisis accumulated.

The 1960s: The Beginning of Records, the Beginning of Warnings

The 1960s mostly began with below-normal rainfall, ranging from 120 to 197 millimeters from 1961 to 1965. This indicates that Iran was a low-rainfall country from the outset. Yet the management problem arose here. During this period, the country rapidly moved toward traditional agricultural development, dam construction, and extensive irrigation networks without evaluating the natural capacity of the ecosystem.

The managerial weakness of this period was a misconception of “abundant water” and the initiation of development without a water resource plan. Policies to balance groundwater were also absent.

The 1970s: Abundant Rainfall Consumed, Not Stored

The 1970s were one of the wettest decades. The years 1971, 1973, 1975, and 1979 all recorded above-normal rainfall, in some cases exceeding 300 millimeters. However, instead of using these years to strengthen groundwater reserves, policies focused on the unchecked expansion of deep wells and irrigated agriculture. For the first time, this created conditions that later intensified the crisis. Mismanagement in the 1970s included issuing widespread permits for wells, supporting water-intensive crops, and a lack of monitoring mechanisms for groundwater extraction. Iran had water but lacked management.

The 1980s: Consecutive Droughts and Unprotected Aquifers

The 1980s were marked by severe fluctuations, with some wet years (1981, 1982, 1985, 1986) and some dry years (1983, 1984, 1987). The decade’s average remained around normal, but the country had just emerged from war and needed to increase food production. The government’s policy emphasized relentless agricultural expansion. Consecutive dry years in the late 1980s led to severe groundwater depletion, yet due to the absence of a data-driven system, the country did not notice sinkholes and declining water tables.

Managerial errors of the 1980s included excessive extraction from aquifers to ensure food security and the replacement of illegal withdrawals with formal permits.

The 1990s: Population Surge, Three Wet Years, and a Historical Mistake

The 1990s combined wet years (1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997) with dry periods. More importantly, rapid population growth added 15 million people to Iran’s population, while the economy focused on wheat self-sufficiency – a policy with long-term disastrous management effects.

Managerial mistakes included shifting agriculture from rain-fed to pump-based systems and misinterpreting the wet years of 1991–1997 as a “stable condition.” Horizontal urban expansion and increased drinking water consumption sowed the seeds of the crisis.

The 2000s: A Decade of Almost Normal Rainfall, Yet Collapse Intensifies

Contrary to common belief, the 2000s were not a low-rainfall decade. Except for 2007, all years were around 200 millimeters or higher. Yet this decade saw the implementation of the largest dam projects in Iran’s history. Groundwater extraction peaked, and the number of legal and illegal wells increased from 300,000 to 650,000 (according to official government statistics). Rainfall was normal, but management was abnormal.

Management errors included relying on aquifers as the main water source, intensive industrial and water-dependent agriculture, dependence on dams, and neglecting artificial aquifer recharge. What could have mitigated the crisis instead accelerated it.

The 2010s: Emergence of Sinkholes, Land Subsidence, and a National Crisis

The 2010s combined two extremely wet years (2018 and 2019) with several very dry years, such as 2017, 2020, and 2014. The problem, however, lay elsewhere: aquifers could no longer recover. Even the 305 mm rainfall in 2018 and 294 mm in 2019 failed to restore them. During this decade, land subsidence – at rates of 20–30 centimeters per year – began in Isfahan, Kerman, Fars, Tehran, and Hamedan.

Managerial errors included complete disregard for scientific warnings, continued cultivation of water-intensive crops such as watermelon, rice (outside northern regions), alfalfa, and excessive industrial water use in low-water areas. The 2010s were the “alarm decade,” yet the alarms went unheard.

The 2020s: Crisis Becomes Apparent

Statistics from the 2020s indicate that three of the past four years were below normal: 2021, 2022, and 2024 were all dry. The critical point is that Iran can no longer withstand a three-year drought. If similar patterns occurred in the 1960s or 1980s, aquifers could have compensated for some shortages. Today, depleted and subsided aquifers cannot recover, and even normal rainfall, such as in 2023, is insufficient for restoration.

Current management bottlenecks include the loss of natural storage capacity, empty dams, dead aquifers, and agriculture still consuming 89% of the country’s water. Today’s crisis is not the result of “drought”; it is the consequence of flawed policymaking over five decades.

What Do the 56-Year Rainfall Statistics Show?

1. Iran has always been a low-rainfall country; today’s crisis is not natural. Fluctuations between 120 and 375 millimeters have always existed. Today, for the first time in contemporary history, aquifer reserves are depleted, the country’s natural regulatory capacity has collapsed, and water demand exceeds climatic limits.

2. The largest errors from the 1970s to today include over-extraction beyond ecosystem capacity, excessive well drilling, water-intensive crops, dam construction, and self-sufficiency policies, which drained aquifers formed over thousands of years in just 50 years.

Wet years were always opportunities; mismanagement turned them into crises. The wet years of 1991–1997, 2001–2005, and 2018–2019 encouraged consumption instead of storage and restoration – the exact opposite of “sustainable management.”

The current crisis accelerated in the 2000s, became evident in the 2010s, and stabilized in the 2020s. The statistics indicate that the 2000s were the peak of mismanagement, the 2010s marked the start of physical signs of crisis, and the 2020s have entered a stage of irreversible aquifer damage. Today’s water crisis is more managerial than climatic.

The 56-year rainfall data makes it clear: “The crisis does not blame nature; it blames policy.”

Comprehensive Table of Rainfall in Iran Over the Past 56 Years
Normal Annual Rainfall in the Country: 234.9 Millimeters

The 1400s (2021–2024)

The 1390s (2011–2020)

The 1380s (2001–2010)

The 1370s (1991–2000)

The 1360s (1981–1990)

The 1350s (1971–1980)

The 1340s (1961–1970)