Iran on the Verge of Permanent Drought / 56 Years of Declining Rainfall Since the 1960s + Table

According to Rokna’s social affairs correspondent, rainfall data from the past 56 years provide a clear picture of ineffective management in this field—a pattern indicating that Iran has gradually entered a broad water crisis since the 1960s, while timely decisions to prevent its escalation were postponed.

The national average rainfall during this period has been 234.9 millimeters; however, many years and decades have recorded far less—or occasionally far more—without the establishment of any coherent national measures or coordinated management mechanisms to confront the crisis.

The 1960s: The Starting Point of Iran’s Water Crisis

The 1960s can be considered the decade when Iran’s water crisis began. From the 1960–1969 water years, except for a few instances, rainfall was below normal. The 1964 water year, with only 119.7 millimeters, was the driest on record in the past 56 years, while 1968 and 1969, with 360 and 275.3 millimeters respectively, were the only bright spots.

This decade clearly showed that the country was subject to extreme climatic fluctuations, laying the foundation for the current drought crisis. Had the government and relevant institutions at that time focused on water resource management, the construction of small and medium-sized dams according to rainfall averages, and on conservation and storage policies, much of today’s water tension could have been prevented.

The 1970s and 1980s: Serious Warnings About the Drying of Water Resources

The 1970s and 1980s were marked by rainfall fluctuations. Rainy years such as 1971 and 1975 indicated that Iran still had water capacity, but years like 1972 and 1988, with below-normal rainfall, issued serious warnings about the drying of the nation’s water resources. Despite several rainy years, such as 1981 with 254.1 millimeters and 1987 with 272.5 millimeters, the 1980s were challenging due to extreme variability in rainfall.

The 1990s: The 1992 Water Year Sets a Record as the Wettest in 63 Years

The 1990s combined both wet and dry years. The 1992 water year, with 375 millimeters of rainfall, was the wettest in the past 63 years. Yet, the decade also included years like 1999 with 140.9 millimeters and 2000 with 172.1 millimeters, indicating that drought had become a consistent pattern. This decade represented a golden opportunity to store water resources, build small dams, and develop efficient irrigation systems to prepare for the future, but no substantial action was taken.

The 2000s: A Temporary Opportunity for Water Resource Recovery and Long-Term Planning

Except for 2007, which saw only 129.3 millimeters of rainfall, the 2000s generally hovered around or above the 200-millimeter normal level. This decade provided a temporary chance for water resource recovery and long-term planning; however, the lack of attention to climate change and the excessive consumption of resources quickly squandered that opportunity.

The 2010s: A Decade of Alarming Drought Warnings Nationwide

The 2010s marked the start of a persistent downward trend in rainfall. Although 2018 and 2019 brought more than 300 millimeters of rainfall, most years in the decade remained below or near normal levels. This period was effectively when drought warnings were heard nationwide, yet no serious or coordinated national program to combat the water crisis was implemented.

The 2020s: A Decade That Proves Iran Has Entered a Severe Water Crisis

The 2020s have made the crisis undeniable. The 2021 water year, with 174.4 millimeters; 2022, with 191.7 millimeters; and 2024, with 142.1 millimeters—all fell below normal levels. Even the 2023 water year, with 234.5 millimeters—close to normal—was merely a faint bright spot in a disastrous trend. The 2020s demonstrate that the country has entered a phase in which the water crisis is not merely natural but structural, demanding immediate decisions and scientifically informed policymaking.

When the Crisis Began and What Should Have Been Done

Data analysis reveals that Iran’s water crisis began in the 1960s, with opportunities for containment in the 1970s and 1980s. The sporadic heavy rainfall in the 1990s and 2000s created false optimism, but the absence of plans for storage and resource management deepened the problem. The 2010s and 2020s, with their ongoing decline in rainfall, show that the country has effectively entered a structural crisis.

The necessary measures should have included the design and construction of extensive water collection and storage networks; implementation of modern irrigation systems and reduced agricultural consumption; development of small and medium-sized dams based on climatic fluctuations; reform of urban and industrial consumption patterns; and the creation of a national drought warning system. These measures could have prevented the worsening of the crisis.

Today, however, Iran faces severe water scarcity, diminishing groundwater reserves, and threats to food security. Statistical trends in rainfall show that unless urgent actions are taken, the coming decades will bring irreversible and potentially catastrophic conditions.

Iran’s Rainfall Levels over the Past 56 Years
Normal rainfall: 234.9 millimeters