Trump and bin Salman’s Secret Deal: What Happens Behind Closed Doors in Washington?

According to Illy Stokols, international affairs reporter for Politico, Trump is entering a high-profile diplomatic game with Saudi Arabia and its de facto ruler at a time when prominent figures in the MAGA movement warn that his administration is overcommitted in foreign policy and neglecting domestic priorities.

Feast, Investment, and Security: The Trio Defining Trump and bin Salman’s Meeting

On Tuesday, the White House will host Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once again; his last official visit to Washington was in 2018, tied to the controversial murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. This time, however, the atmosphere is entirely different. Bin Salman is entering the U.S. capital not as a controversial figure but as one of Washington’s closest partners, expected to secure significant concessions in security and economic matters.

Donald Trump is preparing a lavish reception for the Saudi guest while reviewing a draft bilateral security agreement with Riyadh, under which the U.S. would commit to defending Saudi Arabia in the event of an attack. A well-informed source confirmed this process, describing it as a continuation of Trump’s recent policy initiatives, which began with his September executive order guaranteeing Qatar’s defense. If finalized, this agreement would make Saudi Arabia the second Gulf Arab ally to benefit from a NATO-style security umbrella provided by Washington.

Although bin Salman has yet to fulfill Trump’s top demand—normalization of relations with Israel—the U.S. president plans to highlight Riyadh’s new investment package as the centerpiece of this visit, building on the previously announced $600 billion commitment. Trump views Saudi Arabia as the cornerstone of his plans to establish “sustainable peace” and “economic prosperity” in the region, schemes that ultimately secure the interests of wealthy Middle Eastern actors and, notably, himself.

Close Trump-bin Salman Ties: Weekly Calls and F-35 Negotiations

A senior White House official stated that Trump has recently communicated “with complete clarity” to bin Salman about the importance of Saudi Arabia potentially joining the Abraham Accords. The official also noted that Trump recognizes Saudi Arabia may not be ready to take such a step currently, but emphasizes that this relationship is vital for regional stability, with tangible and measurable benefits for both sides.

Sources indicate that Trump’s personal interest in the crown prince is genuine and enduring; the two reportedly speak almost weekly, with conversations extending beyond official channels. Ahead of bin Salman’s visit, Saudi Arabia is preparing a major investment conference at the Kennedy Center on Wednesday to showcase Riyadh’s efforts to secure a U.S. AI chip import deal. Simultaneously, Washington is expected to signal support for Saudi Arabia’s nuclear energy program.

On the military front, discussions over the sale of F-35 fighter jets continue, a strategic deal that could give Trump leverage to encourage Saudi Arabia toward normalization with Israel and reduce defense cooperation with China. Khalid bin Salman, Saudi Defense Minister and the crown prince’s younger brother, announced Tuesday that he had met with U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, ahead of the trip.

Saudi Forward Push Against Qatar and the Quest for a U.S. Security Shield

As in his first presidential term, Trump has selected Saudi Arabia as his first significant foreign visit, signaling a shift in U.S. foreign policy toward an overtly transactional approach. In this new framework, traditional alliance criteria and “shared values” have been largely sidelined, placing mutual interests—public and private—on an equal footing. This focus on the Gulf and a pragmatic form of multilateralism has allowed Trump to consolidate the initial fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that continues to hold parts of Gaza.

Trump has relied heavily on Qatar, which played a central role in designing and implementing the Gaza agreement. Following Israel’s missile attack on Hamas officials in Qatar on September 9 and the resulting disruption of peace talks, Doha requested a U.S. security guarantee. Trump issued an executive order pledging U.S. defense if such an attack were repeated, effectively creating a NATO-style security precedent in the Middle East and triggering regional speculation.

Jonathan Schanzer, former U.S. Treasury anti-terrorism analyst and executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argues that a key part of the crown prince’s upcoming visit is to “secure the same benefits Qatar received—or even more.” He notes, “Saudi Arabia and Qatar have long been rivals. Naturally, the Saudis view these developments with a sense of envy and aim to obtain the maximum possible concessions.” The White House declined to comment on this assessment.

Trump continues to regard Saudi Arabia as a key regional actor, while bin Salman hopes to leverage this status to secure a formal, bilateral defense agreement similar to Qatar’s, rather than an executive order alone. However, any agreement that does not pass through Congress would remain vulnerable to reversal by a future U.S. president.

Alongside security considerations, major investments—like those from Qatar and the UAE—remain central to U.S.-Saudi relations. During a May visit, following a meeting with U.S. business giants and powerful Saudi economic figures, Trump praised the $600 billion investment commitment. Another major investment conference is now scheduled in Washington.

A Middle Eastern diplomat based in Washington commented: “Bringing their investors is a smart move by the Saudis; exactly what Trump and his team expected.” Yet the need for capital is not limited to the U.S. Bin Salman faces growing pressure to attract foreign investors, aiming to share the high costs of modernizing the economy with the private sector.

High interest rates in Saudi Arabia and uneven progress on massive infrastructure projects—particularly the “linear city” project, which has faced widespread criticism—have pressured the Public Investment Fund. Falling oil prices have also reduced Aramco’s profitability, the kingdom’s economic mainstay. At last month’s Riyadh investment conference, Saudi officials reiterated that the country’s future development relies more than ever on private sector participation, launching an extensive campaign to attract American companies and accelerate foreign investment.