Strengthening the Prospects of Ukraine’s EU Membership: The Country’s Near Future

An English media outlet reported on Friday that the draft peace agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which includes a timetable for Kyiv’s EU membership by January 2027, has sparked fresh debates about the future of the conflict and European calculations.

According to Rokna, citing the Financial Times, the plan is part of a proposed peace framework being reviewed under U.S.-mediated negotiations, reportedly drafted with the support of Brussels and submitted to Washington.

The English newspaper, citing informed sources familiar with the draft, noted that the new version has been revised compared to some previous proposals, which Ukrainian and European officials considered costly for Kyiv, aiming to pave the way for compromise.

The Financial Times further wrote that including a timeline for EU membership by 2027 could trigger new debates regarding the accession process, which depends on fulfilling criteria and necessary reforms, voting rights, financial access for new members, and the budgetary implications of EU expansion.

The report also noted that the final decision on membership requires the consensus of all EU member states, and such a timeline, even with political support, is tied to the technical and legal requirements of the accession process.

It is worth mentioning that Ukraine applied for EU membership after the war began in February 2022, and Brussels granted Kyiv “candidate status” in June of the same year. EU leaders decided in December 2023 to commence accession negotiations with Ukraine, and formal talks began in June 2024 with the first intergovernmental meeting in Luxembourg.

However, expert assessments and official EU reports indicate that the path to Ukraine’s full membership remains difficult and time-consuming, as full accession requires extensive reforms in areas such as the rule of law and anti-corruption, harmonization of laws with EU regulations across dozens of negotiation chapters, and ultimately approval from all member states.

From this perspective, some experts consider full membership by 2027 highly unlikely, but believe that proposing such a timeline could accelerate Ukraine’s gradual integration and convergence with the European Union.