China Possesses 500 Nuclear Warheads, Expected to Reach 1,000 in Five Years

China is updating its nuclear forces, and it is likely that the number of its nuclear warheads will double by 2030, reaching 1,000. Currently, however, China possesses 500 nuclear warheads.

According to the Russian high-circulation newspaper Izvestia, in a report authored by Dmitry Kornev and Roman Kristol, which addressed China's nuclear capabilities and stated that China’s nuclear arsenal is decisive.

China currently possesses a complete nuclear triad and has successfully mastered all warhead delivery systems. China has intercontinental and medium-range missiles capable of targeting anything; these include hypersonic missiles equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and heavy megaton-class warheads. The latter warheads are mounted on missiles powered by both solid- and liquid-fuel engines.

Izvestia further reports that China possesses nuclear submarines and is developing additional new submarines, while also advancing its intercontinental missile program. Recently, China has acquired aircraft capable of carrying bombs and missiles with the required warheads. China does not release data about its nuclear capabilities, and precise figures regarding the warheads it possesses are unavailable.

It is estimated that China’s strategic nuclear forces had 500 nuclear warheads in 2023. These estimates are based on analyses of warheads capable of being delivered by land-based missiles and submarines. It is further estimated that China will update its nuclear forces and that the number of its warheads could double to 1,000 by 2030, as the country possesses the technical capacity to do so.

The only remaining question is: in which direction will these warheads be aimed in the future?

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